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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

38-39  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Jun 22 • 1:35 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

30-48  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Ezequiel Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Ezequiel Duran

#20 | Shortstop
@
Nick Gonzales
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Gonzales

#3 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ezequiel Duran None-None -- -- -- --
Nick Gonzales None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
RANGERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Texas)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

60.4%

Pirates Cover

39.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

16.4%

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.2%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.03
TEXAS
3.98
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Rangers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 23, 2026 PIT @ TEX 1 - 6
Apr 22, 2026 PIT @ TEX 8 - 4
Apr 21, 2026 PIT @ TEX 1 - 5
Jun 22, 2025 TEX @ PIT 3 - 8
Jun 21, 2025 TEX @ PIT 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.713
OPS
▲ .734
183
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +49.0% more
Texas: 0.6 vs Pittsburgh: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +41.2% more
Texas: 11.7 vs Pittsburgh: 6.9
Hits (L5) +18.7% more
Texas: 7.5 vs Pittsburgh: 6.1
Errors (L5) +57.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.6 vs Texas: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 5.0 3
PIT Score 4.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.1 / 7.5 15.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 7.4 6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 6.9 / 11.7 20.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.6 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TEX
PIT
TEX
ML
52% 82-77
53% 86-76
52% 85-78
57% 91-70
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 92-70
50% 81-82
61% 98-63
TTL
47% 72-81-6
53% 78-70-14
50% 79-78-6
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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