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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

39-38  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Jun 22 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

42-35  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emilio Pagan None-None 3.27 -- 1.0 --
Gordon Graceffo None-None 6.62 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.27 Ldr ERA 6.62
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
REDS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (St. Louis)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

46.0%

Cardinals Cover

54.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

CIN By 1-2 runs

17.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

12.4%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.0%

STL By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.23
CINCINNATI
4.63
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 STL @ CIN 10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026 STL @ CIN 4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026 STL @ CIN 3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026 STL @ CIN 2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026 CIN @ STL 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.699 ▲
OPS
.691
213 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +72.0% more
St. Louis: 1.1 vs Cincinnati: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +38.0% more
St. Louis: 1.2 vs Cincinnati: 0.8
Hits (L5) +10.5% more
St. Louis: 8.7 vs Cincinnati: 7.8
Runs per Game (Season) +8.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.2 4
STL Score 4.6 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 7.8 4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.0 10.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 13.3 4.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CIN
STL
CIN
ML
53% 85-74
55% 88-71
52% 84-77
49% 79-81
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 86-73
53% 85-76
50% 80-80
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 81-73-5
50% 76-75-10
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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