Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Athletics CLE @ ATH

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

38-37  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Jun 22 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

32-47  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Tim Herrin
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Herrin

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jack Perkins
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Perkins

#50 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Herrin None-None 3.96 -- 0.1 1
Jack Perkins None-None 0.00 -- 3.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.96 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
📊
ATHLETICS
0%
GUARDIANS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Athletics)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

42.9%

Athletics Cover

57.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

CLE By 1-2 runs

17.0%

CLE By 3-4 runs

11.4%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.4%

ATH By 3-4 runs

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.89
CLEVELAND
3.61
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 ATH @ CLE 0 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 ATH @ CLE 6 - 12
Sep 18, 2026 ATH @ CLE 3 - 5
May 3, 2026 CLE @ ATH 1 - 7
May 2, 2026 CLE @ ATH 14 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .719
162
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +66.0% more
Athletics: 1.2 vs Cleveland: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +19.8% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Total Bases (L5) +14.1% more
Athletics: 12.9 vs Cleveland: 11.3
Walks (L5) +12.2% more
Athletics: 3.1 vs Cleveland: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 2.9 3
ATH Score 3.6 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.8 / 7.2 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 9.8 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 11.3 9.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.8 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
CLE
ATH
CLE
ML
59% 95-67
54% 87-74
54% 87-74
49% 80-82
ATS
52% 84-78
58% 93-68
50% 81-80
59% 95-67
TTL
54% 84-73-5
55% 88-71-2
42% 66-90-5
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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