Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Giants BOS @ SF

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

40-38  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Jun 22 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

43-34  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Erik Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Erik Miller

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
Willy Adames
STARTING PITCHER

Willy Adames

#2 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Erik Miller None-None 1.03 -- 1.0 --
Willy Adames None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.03 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
📊
GIANTS
100%
RED SOX --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

60.5%

Giants Cover

39.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.5%

SF By 1-2 runs

16.1%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.85
BOSTON
3.78
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 SF @ BOS 4 - 5
Aug 22, 2026 SF @ BOS 2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 SF @ BOS 4 - 6
Jun 22, 2025 BOS @ SF 5 - 9
Jun 21, 2025 BOS @ SF 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.409
OPS
▲ .706
2
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +34.6% more
Boston: 3.5 vs San Francisco: 2.3
Total Bases (L5) +11.7% more
Boston: 10.6 vs San Francisco: 9.4
Home Runs (Season) +8800.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +313.0% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.9 5
SF Score 3.8 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 2.0 / 2.0
Hits 5.9 / 6.3 11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 8.4 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 9.4 / 10.6 22.0 / 23.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.5 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
BOS
SF
BOS
ML
49% 79-81
50% 80-80
53% 85-75
47% 76-87
ATS
62% 100-60
58% 93-67
52% 83-77
48% 79-84
TTL
55% 82-68-10
46% 72-83-5
46% 68-81-11
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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