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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

44-33  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Jun 22 • 4:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

37-39  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Abreu
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Abreu

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Zach Neto
STARTING PITCHER

Zach Neto

#9 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Abreu None-None 1.83 -- 1.1 3
Zach Neto None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.83 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
3 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
📊
ANGELS
100%
ASTROS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

51.3%

Angels Cover

48.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

13.9%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.2%

LAA By 3-4 runs

13.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.77
HOUSTON
4.64
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.582
OPS
▲ .679
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +81.0% more
Houston: 1.0 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +3750.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +67.9% more
Los Angeles: 2.2 vs Houston: 1.3
Runs per Game (Season) +34.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.0 vs Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.8 8
LAA Score 4.6 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.1 11.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 1.3 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.7 / 9.9 7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 12.9 23.0 / 24.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.1 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
HOU
LAA
HOU
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-82
55% 89-73
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 91-72
51% 82-80
55% 90-74
TTL
53% 83-74-5
45% 70-84-9
52% 82-75-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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