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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

32-45  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Jun 22 • 4:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

47-31  |  Home

13
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Alex Vesia None-None 3.09 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.09
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
0%
📊
DODGERS
100%
NATIONALS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

54.6%

Dodgers Cover

45.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.1%

WSH By 3-4 runs

14.9%

LAD By 1-2 runs

17.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.13
WASHINGTON
3.67
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 WSH @ LAD 5 - 7
Sep 5, 2026 WSH @ LAD 5 - 6
Sep 4, 2026 WSH @ LAD 3 - 5
Apr 5, 2026 LAD @ WSH 8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026 LAD @ WSH 10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.744
OPS
▲ .762
210 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +41.1% more
Washington: 2.9 vs Los Angeles: 1.7
Errors (L5) +27.0% more
Washington: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +22.8% more
Washington: 19.3 vs Los Angeles: 14.9
Strikeouts (L5) +12.3% more
Washington: 9.3 vs Los Angeles: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.1 7
LAD Score 3.7 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 8.9 11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 2.9 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.3 4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 19.3 24.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.5 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
WSH
LAD
WSH
ML
56% 92-73
57% 92-69
48% 79-87
54% 87-74
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-68
43% 72-94
57% 91-70
TTL
48% 77-82-6
50% 77-78-6
44% 70-90-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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