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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

39-37  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Jun 21 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

41-35  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Chase Petty
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Petty

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Pedro Pages
STARTING PITCHER

Pedro Pages

#43 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chase Petty None-None 19.50 -- 0.2 --
Pedro Pages None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
19.50 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
REDS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (St. Louis)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

38.3%

Cardinals Cover

61.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.8%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.1%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.92
CINCINNATI
5.11
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 STL @ CIN 10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026 STL @ CIN 4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026 STL @ CIN 3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026 STL @ CIN 2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026 CIN @ STL 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.699 ▲
OPS
.691
213 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +9.6% more
St. Louis: 12.6 vs Cincinnati: 11.5
Hits (L5) +9.4% more
St. Louis: 8.5 vs Cincinnati: 7.8
Runs per Game (Season) +8.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season) +1.0%
St. Louis: 23.9% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.9 5
STL Score 5.1 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 7.8 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 9.0 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 11.5 15.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.3 / 4.6 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CIN
STL
CIN
ML
53% 85-74
55% 88-71
52% 84-77
49% 79-81
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 86-73
53% 85-76
50% 80-80
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 81-73-5
50% 76-75-10
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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