SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
38-36 | Road
7
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
45-30 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emerson Hancock
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock | None-None | 5.43 | -- | 4.0 | 5 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.20 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.43
ERA
Ldr 2.20
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
0%
CUBS
100%
MARINERS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.4%
SEA By 3-4 runs
13.6%
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
13.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
3.62
SEATTLE
Chicago
3.61
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CHC @ SEA
19 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
CHC @ SEA
4 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CHC @ SEA
5 - 6
Jun 22, 2025
SEA @ CHC
14 - 6
Jun 21, 2025
SEA @ CHC
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.379
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.693
▲
OPS
.374
182
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+87.8% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+31.9%
Seattle: 69.3%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+23.4%
Seattle: 37.9%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
3.6
7
CHC Score
3.6
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 9.1
9.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.7
5.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.1
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 16.7
26.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.5
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SEA
CHC
SEA
ML
58%
93-68
50%
81-81
51%
82-79
52%
85-77
ATS
61%
97-63-1
60%
98-64
47%
75-85-1
59%
95-67
TTL
52%
81-74-6
56%
85-67-10
46%
72-83-6
53%
81-71-10
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