Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Giants BOS @ SF

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

40-37  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Jun 21 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

42-34  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Brayan Bello
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Bello

#66 | Starting Pitcher
@
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brayan Bello None-None 3.31 -- 6.0 6
Camilo Doval None-None 2.06 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.31 ERA Ldr 2.06
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
📊
GIANTS
100%
RED SOX --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

60.2%

Giants Cover

39.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.4%

SF By 1-2 runs

16.2%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.88
BOSTON
3.85
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 SF @ BOS 4 - 5
Aug 22, 2026 SF @ BOS 2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 SF @ BOS 4 - 6
Jun 22, 2025 BOS @ SF 5 - 9
Jun 21, 2025 BOS @ SF 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.409
OPS
▲ .706
2
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +70.9% more
Boston: 1.4 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Walks (L5) +59.3% more
Boston: 4.7 vs San Francisco: 1.9
Total Bases (L5) +27.1% more
Boston: 12.4 vs San Francisco: 9.0
Home Runs (Season) +8800.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.9 2
SF Score 3.9 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.9 / 6.5 4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 9.1 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 9.0 / 12.4 10.0 / 7.0
Walks 1.9 / 4.7 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
BOS
SF
BOS
ML
49% 79-81
50% 80-80
53% 85-75
47% 76-87
ATS
62% 100-60
58% 93-67
52% 83-77
48% 79-84
TTL
55% 82-68-10
46% 72-83-5
46% 68-81-11
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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