Home / MLB Projections MLB / Diamondbacks @ Rockies ARI @ COL

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

38-37  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Jun 21 • 9:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

17-59  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Thompson

#81 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Thompson None-None 4.97 -- 1.0 1
Jimmy Herget None-None 3.29 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.97 ERA Ldr 3.29
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
📊
ROCKIES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

67.1%

Rockies Cover

32.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.0%

COL By 1-2 runs

14.2%

COL By 3-4 runs

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.49
ARIZONA
3.72
COLORADO
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.720
OPS
▲ .739
166
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +56.7% more
Arizona: 8.6 vs Colorado: 3.7
Hits (L5) +13.9% more
Arizona: 12.0 vs Colorado: 10.4
Total Bases (L5) +10.6% more
Arizona: 21.5 vs Colorado: 19.2
Home Runs (Season) +8.4% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 5.5 5
COL Score 3.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.4 / 12.0 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 2.1 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 3.7 / 8.6 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 19.2 / 21.5 11.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.3 / 2.4 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ARI
COL
ARI
ML
60% 97-64
54% 87-74
55% 88-73
54% 86-74
ATS
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
52% 83-78
56% 89-71
TTL
60% 93-62-6
52% 80-73-8
50% 77-78-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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