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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

44-32  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Jun 21 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

36-39  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
LaMonte Wade Jr.
STARTING PITCHER

LaMonte Wade Jr.

#31 | Left Field
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
LaMonte Wade Jr. None-None -- -- -- --
Sam Bachman None-None 2.25 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.25
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
📊
ANGELS
100%
ASTROS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

61.6%

Angels Cover

38.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

16.7%

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.8%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.24
HOUSTON
4.06
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
HOUSTON
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Astros (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.582
OPS
▲ .679
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +71.0% more
Houston: 1.0 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Hits (L5) +39.7% more
Houston: 10.7 vs Los Angeles: 6.5
Total Bases (L5) +31.1% more
Houston: 17.8 vs Los Angeles: 12.3
Home Runs (L5) +8.1% more
Houston: 2.0 vs Los Angeles: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 5.2 1
LAA Score 4.1 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.5 / 10.7 11.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 2.0 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 10.3 13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 17.8 23.0 / 3.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.2 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
HOU
LAA
HOU
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-82
55% 89-73
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 91-72
51% 82-80
55% 90-74
TTL
53% 83-74-5
45% 70-84-9
52% 82-75-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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