SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
37-36 | Road
9
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
45-29 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.30 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.30 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.30
ERA
2.30
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
100%
CUBS
0%
MARINERS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
SEA By 1-2 runs
15.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
9.9%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
2.78
SEATTLE
Chicago
4.03
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CHC @ SEA
19 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
CHC @ SEA
4 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CHC @ SEA
5 - 6
Jun 22, 2025
SEA @ CHC
14 - 6
Jun 21, 2025
SEA @ CHC
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.379
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.693
▲
OPS
.374
182
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+126.0% more
Chicago: 1.8
vs
Seattle: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+38.6% more
Chicago: 3.2
vs
Seattle: 2.3
Total Bases (L5)
+25.2% more
Chicago: 13.3
vs
Seattle: 10.6
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
2.8
9
CHC Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 7.1
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.5
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.6
11.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 10.6
17.0 / 29.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SEA
CHC
SEA
ML
58%
93-68
50%
81-81
51%
82-79
52%
85-77
ATS
61%
97-63-1
60%
98-64
47%
75-85-1
59%
95-67
TTL
52%
81-74-6
56%
85-67-10
46%
72-83-6
53%
81-71-10
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