TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
36-39 | Road
6
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
30-46 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 2.24 | -- | 6.0 | 7 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 1.54 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.24
ERA
Ldr 1.54
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
PIRATES
100%
RANGERS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
17.2%
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
5.43
TEXAS
Pittsburgh
4.05
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Rangers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
PIT @ TEX
1 - 6
Apr 22, 2026
PIT @ TEX
8 - 4
Apr 21, 2026
PIT @ TEX
1 - 5
Jun 22, 2025
TEX @ PIT
3 - 8
Jun 21, 2025
TEX @ PIT
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.713
OPS
▲
.734
183
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+36.2% more
Texas: 11.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.3
Hits (L5)
+25.8% more
Texas: 7.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.5
Walks (L5)
+19.9% more
Texas: 3.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+11.0% more
Texas: 0.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
5.4
6
PIT Score
4.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.5 / 7.4
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 6.3
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
7.3 / 11.4
9.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.2
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TEX
PIT
TEX
ML
52%
82-77
53%
86-76
52%
85-78
57%
91-70
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
92-70
50%
81-82
61%
98-63
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
78-70-14
50%
79-78-6
55%
81-66-14
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