Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Giants BOS @ SF

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

39-37  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Jun 20 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

42-33  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Erik Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Erik Miller

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
Christian Koss
STARTING PITCHER

Christian Koss

#50 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Erik Miller None-None 1.07 -- 0.2 1
Christian Koss None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.07 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
📊
GIANTS
100%
RED SOX --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

55.1%

Giants Cover

44.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.2%

BOS By 3-4 runs

15.0%

SF By 1-2 runs

17.4%

SF By 3-4 runs

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.45
BOSTON
3.94
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
5
BOSTON
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 SF @ BOS 4 - 5
Aug 22, 2026 SF @ BOS 2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 SF @ BOS 4 - 6
Jun 22, 2025 BOS @ SF 5 - 9
Jun 21, 2025 BOS @ SF 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.409
OPS
▲ .706
2
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +45.0% more
Boston: 1.1 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Walks (L5) +23.4% more
Boston: 3.1 vs San Francisco: 2.4
Home Runs (Season) +8800.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +313.0% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.5 7
SF Score 3.9 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.8 / 4.2 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 9.6 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 8.6 7.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.1 1.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
BOS
SF
BOS
ML
49% 79-81
50% 80-80
53% 85-75
47% 76-87
ATS
62% 100-60
58% 93-67
52% 83-77
48% 79-84
TTL
55% 82-68-10
46% 72-83-5
46% 68-81-11
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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