PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
29-46 | Road
8
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
48-27 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Billy Cook
#25 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Baez
#28 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Cook | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Javier Baez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
TIGERS
0%
PIRATES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.4%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.0%
DET By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.41
PITTSBURGH
Detroit
3.82
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 2
Sep 26, 2026
PIT @ DET
3 - 4
Sep 25, 2026
PIT @ DET
7 - 8
Aug 19, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734
▲
OPS
.720
186
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+210.0% more
Detroit: 2.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+171.0% more
Detroit: 18.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.9
Errors (L5)
+112.0% more
Detroit: 1.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+67.5% more
Detroit: 8.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.4
8
DET Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 5.2
12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 7.0
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
18.7 / 6.9
18.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.3
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PIT
DET
PIT
ML
54%
86-73
52%
82-77
54%
87-73
52%
85-78
ATS
64%
101-58
54%
86-73
57%
91-69
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
69-81-9
47%
72-81-6
46%
69-81-10
50%
79-78-6
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