Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Rangers KC @ TEX

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

36-38  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Jun 19 • 2:35 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

36-38  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Cole Winn
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Winn

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Wacha None-None 3.24 -- 6.0 5
Cole Winn None-None 0.00 -- 1.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.24 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
50%
📊
RANGERS
50%
ROYALS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Texas)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

29.4%

Rangers Cover

70.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

KC By 1-2 runs

13.1%

KC By 3-4 runs

7.4%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.5%

TEX By 3-4 runs

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.99
KANSAS CITY
5.16
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 11, 2026 TEX @ KC 4 - 2
Jun 10, 2026 TEX @ KC 6 - 4
Jun 9, 2026 TEX @ KC 3 - 5
May 31, 2026 KC @ TEX 3 - 6
May 30, 2026 KC @ TEX 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.718 ▲
OPS
.713
170
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +36.0% more
Texas: 2.8 vs Kansas City: 2.0
Hits (L5) +32.4% more
Texas: 9.6 vs Kansas City: 7.2
Total Bases (L5) +17.6% more
Texas: 15.1 vs Kansas City: 12.8
Home Runs (Season) +7.6% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.0 4
TEX Score 5.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.6 / 7.2 3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.1 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 9.5 2.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 12.8 4.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.0 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
KC
TEX
KC
ML
53% 86-76
55% 89-72
57% 91-70
56% 90-70
ATS
57% 92-70
57% 91-70
61% 98-63
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 78-70-14
58% 90-64-7
55% 81-66-14
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
yahoo 9 hours, 6 minutes ago
Patrick Mahomes Sr. Cleared for Chiefs Home Games with Strict Ur…
nypost 2 days, 2 hours ago
Diamondbacks Honor Virahonda and Hagaman as Top Minor Leaguers A…
newschannel10 2 days, 3 hours ago
Penalties and Turnovers Sink Colorado in 29-7 Loss to No. 12 Tex…
si 4 days, 9 hours ago
Texas Rangers Face $38.3M Arbitration Decisions on 10 Players
si 5 days, 9 hours ago