Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Braves NYM @ ATL

NEW YORK

METSNYM

45-29  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Jun 19 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

33-39  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Dylan Lee None-None 1.91 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.91
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
65%
📊
BRAVES
35%
METS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Atlanta)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

36.0%

Braves Cover

64.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.2%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.4%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATL By 3-4 runs

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.11
NEW YORK
5.54
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Win
35% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Braves (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 NYM @ ATL 3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 NYM @ ATL 0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026 NYM @ ATL 8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026 ATL @ NYM 1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026 ATL @ NYM 3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.705
OPS
▲ .757
204 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +73.5% more
Atlanta: 10.9 vs New York: 6.3
Total Bases (L5) +21.3% more
Atlanta: 12.4 vs New York: 10.2
Runs per Game (Season) +16.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs New York: 4.3
Hits (L5) +14.4% more
Atlanta: 7.6 vs New York: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.1 1
ATL Score 5.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 6.7 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 6.3 13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 10.2 11.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.2 / 4.5 1.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NYM
ATL
NYM
ML
46% 77-90
50% 79-80
54% 90-78
48% 76-83
ATS
57% 96-71
58% 93-66
52% 87-81
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 83-73-11
55% 80-66-13
49% 76-80-11
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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