HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
43-31 | Road
4
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
30-46 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
J.T. Ginn
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.67 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| J.T. Ginn | None-None | 5.24 | -- | 1.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.67 Ldr
ERA
5.24
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
68%
ATHLETICS
32%
ASTROS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
19.5%
ATH By 1-2 runs
11.0%
ATH By 3-4 runs
5.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
6.19
HOUSTON
Athletics
3.31
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
HOU @ ATH
9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026
HOU @ ATH
13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026
HOU @ ATH
5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026
HOU @ ATH
7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026
ATH @ HOU
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Athletics
ATH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.582
OPS
▲
.719
4
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+52.9% more
Houston: 2.4
vs
Athletics: 1.2
Hits (L5)
+48.4% more
Houston: 13.4
vs
Athletics: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+47.2% more
Houston: 22.9
vs
Athletics: 12.1
Errors (L5)
+42.3% more
Houston: 1.2
vs
Athletics: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
6.2
4
ATH Score
3.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.2
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
6.9 / 13.4
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.4
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.7
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 22.9
24.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.4
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
HOU
ATH
HOU
ML
59%
95-67
50%
81-82
54%
87-74
47%
77-87
ATS
52%
84-78
56%
91-72
50%
81-80
55%
90-74
TTL
54%
84-73-5
45%
70-84-9
42%
66-90-5
45%
69-86-9
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