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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

39-34  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Jun 19 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

46-29  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
STARTING PITCHER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yuki Matsui None-None 3.00 -- 0.1 1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto None-None 2.76 -- 6.1 5
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 ERA Ldr 2.76
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
42%
📊
DODGERS
58%
PADRES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 59%
Under 0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

46.8%

Dodgers Cover

53.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SD By 1-2 runs

17.8%

SD By 3-4 runs

12.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.9%

LAD By 3-4 runs

14.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.65
SAN DIEGO
4.97
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.925 ▲
OPS
.762
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +92.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs San Diego: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +29.5% more
Los Angeles: 16.3 vs San Diego: 12.6
Errors (L5) +11.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs San Diego: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.7 5
LAD Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.9 / 8.2 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.2 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.3 / 12.6 6.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.0 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SD
LAD
SD
ML
56% 92-73
51% 85-83
48% 79-87
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 91-77
43% 72-94
55% 92-75
TTL
48% 77-82-6
51% 82-80-6
44% 70-90-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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