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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

3-2  |  Road

91
FINAL
Thu, Jun 19 • 8:30 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

2-3  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
THUNDER --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Indiana)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

49.0%

Pacers Cover

51.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

OKC By 1-7 points

25.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

14.9%

IND By 1-7 points

25.6%

IND By 8-14 points

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
112.59
OKLAHOMA CITY
112.83
INDIANA
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
108
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim Thunder (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 IND @ OKC 117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025 OKC @ IND 141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025 OKC @ IND 101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025 IND @ OKC 91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025 OKC @ IND 91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.2% more
Indiana: 18.3 vs Oklahoma City: 13.7
Assists (L5) +21.8% more
Indiana: 23.6 vs Oklahoma City: 19.4
Steals (L5) +20.5% more
Oklahoma City: 12.0 vs Indiana: 9.6
Blocks (L5) +18.1% more
Oklahoma City: 6.8 vs Indiana: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 112.6 91
IND Score 112.8 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 36.8 35.7 / 26.7
Assists 23.6 / 19.4 23.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.5 / 6.8 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 45.6 41.3 / 41.9
Free Throw % 79.0 / 83.6 68.0 / 80.8
Rebounding 41.4 / 43.0 46.0 / 41.0
Steals 9.6 / 12.0 16.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 18.3 / 13.7 11.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
OKC
IND
OKC
ML
48% 47-50
70% 80-34
54% 45-38
48% 46-49
ATS
59% 57-40
73% 83-30-1
54% 45-38
48% 46-49
TTL
54% 52-45
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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