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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

16-57  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Jun 18 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

30-43  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Mejia None-None 3.57 -- 1.0 --
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.57 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
ROCKIES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

54.8%

Nationals Cover

45.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

19.1%

COL By 3-4 runs

14.9%

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.11
COLORADO
3.63
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 COL @ WSH 1 - 7
Aug 26, 2026 COL @ WSH 13 - 1
Aug 25, 2026 COL @ WSH 3 - 1
Aug 24, 2026 COL @ WSH 3 - 13
Jul 22, 2026 WSH @ COL 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.739
OPS
▲ .744
180
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +75.0% more
Colorado: 0.9 vs Washington: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +63.0% more
Colorado: 3.4 vs Washington: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +34.6% more
Colorado: 21.4 vs Washington: 14.0
Walks (L5) +27.4% more
Colorado: 4.0 vs Washington: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 4.1 3
WSH Score 3.6 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 9.2 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 3.4 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 5.8 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 21.4 8.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.9 / 4.0 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
COL
WSH
COL
ML
57% 92-69
60% 97-64
54% 87-74
55% 88-73
ATS
58% 93-68
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
52% 83-78
TTL
50% 77-78-6
60% 93-62-6
42% 65-90-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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