PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
43-29 | Road
3
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
28-42 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | None-None | 4.41 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.81 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.41
ERA
Ldr 3.81
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
MARLINS
0%
PHILLIES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.8%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.2%
MIA By 3-4 runs
15.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.58
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
4.17
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
3
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724
OPS
▲
.727
3
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5500.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+93.8% more
Miami: 3.1
vs
Philadelphia: 1.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.0% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
On-Base Pct (Season)
+4.0%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.6
3
MIA Score
4.2
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 10.8
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 8.1
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 18.4
20.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.1 / 1.6
0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PHI
MIA
PHI
ML
48%
78-84
59%
97-67
55%
88-72
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
91-71
65%
107-57
54%
86-74
51%
83-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
57%
88-67-9
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-76-9
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