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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

36-35  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Jun 17 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

37-35  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Larnach
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Larnach

#9 | Left Field
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Larnach None-None -- -- -- --
Emilio Pagan None-None 3.23 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.23
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
0%
📊
REDS
100%
TWINS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Minnesota)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

53.1%

Reds Cover

46.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

18.9%

MIN By 3-4 runs

14.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

17.9%

CIN By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
MINNESOTA
4.49
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 19, 2026 CIN @ MIN 7 - 4
Apr 18, 2026 CIN @ MIN 5 - 4
Apr 17, 2026 CIN @ MIN 2 - 1
Jun 19, 2025 MIN @ CIN 12 - 5
Jun 18, 2025 MIN @ CIN 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.720 ▲
OPS
.699
187
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +10.3% more
Minnesota: 8.0 vs Cincinnati: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season) +9.9% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season) +2.1%
Minnesota: 72.0% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Batting Avg (Season) +1.6%
Minnesota: 24.5% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.8 5
CIN Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.4 / 7.3 5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 8.0 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.8 / 12.3 7.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.5 2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIN
CIN
MIN
ML
55% 88-71
52% 84-78
49% 79-81
50% 80-81
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 95-67
50% 80-80
59% 95-66
TTL
53% 81-73-5
51% 78-75-9
54% 83-72-5
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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