NEW YORK
METSNYM
45-27 | Road
4
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
31-39 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Francisco Alvarez
#4 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
6.00
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
BRAVES
0%
METS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
NYM By 1-2 runs
15.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
9.2%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.1
NEW YORK
Atlanta
5.6
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
NYM @ ATL
3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
NYM @ ATL
0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026
NYM @ ATL
8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026
ATL @ NYM
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026
ATL @ NYM
3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.705
OPS
▲
.757
204
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+74.9% more
Atlanta: 13.9
vs
New York: 7.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
New York: 4.3
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Atlanta: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+8.5% more
Atlanta: 8.4
vs
New York: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.1
4
ATL Score
5.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.7
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
13.9 / 7.9
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 12.2
8.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.7
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NYM
ATL
NYM
ML
46%
77-90
50%
79-80
54%
90-78
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-66
52%
87-81
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
55%
80-66-13
49%
76-80-11
51%
74-72-13
Contextual Game News
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