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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

34-38  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Jun 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

36-36  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ezequiel Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Ezequiel Duran

#20 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Steven Cruz None-None 2.00 -- 1.0 1
Ezequiel Duran None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
RANGERS
0%
ROYALS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Texas)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

18.6%

Rangers Cover

81.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

KC By 1-2 runs

9.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

4.3%

TEX By 1-2 runs

17.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.4
KANSAS CITY
5.97
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.6
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 11, 2026 TEX @ KC 4 - 2
Jun 10, 2026 TEX @ KC 6 - 4
Jun 9, 2026 TEX @ KC 3 - 5
May 31, 2026 KC @ TEX 3 - 6
May 30, 2026 KC @ TEX 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.718 ▲
OPS
.713
170
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +75.0% more
Texas: 1.0 vs Kansas City: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +73.6% more
Texas: 16.7 vs Kansas City: 9.6
Hits (L5) +42.9% more
Texas: 10.0 vs Kansas City: 7.0
Strikeouts (L5) +40.6% more
Texas: 10.8 vs Kansas City: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 2.4 6
TEX Score 6.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.0 / 7.0 5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.2 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.8 / 7.7 7.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 16.7 / 9.6 6.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.3 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
KC
TEX
KC
ML
53% 86-76
55% 89-72
57% 91-70
56% 90-70
ATS
57% 92-70
57% 91-70
61% 98-63
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 78-70-14
58% 90-64-7
55% 81-66-14
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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