BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
38-36 | Road
0
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
36-35 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ceddanne Rafaela
#3 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 1.26 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
1.26
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
MARINERS
100%
RED SOX
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.1%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.8%
SEA By 1-2 runs
17.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.5
BOSTON
Seattle
4.06
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SEA @ BOS
8 - 3
Sep 1, 2026
SEA @ BOS
9 - 6
Aug 31, 2026
SEA @ BOS
8 - 9
Jun 21, 2026
BOS @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 20, 2026
BOS @ SEA
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.379
.409
OPS
▲
.693
2
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+50.0% more
Boston: 0.6
vs
Seattle: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+36.6% more
Boston: 1.0
vs
Seattle: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+19.3% more
Boston: 3.3
vs
Seattle: 2.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.3% more
Boston: 11.2
vs
Seattle: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.5
0
SEA Score
4.1
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 6.1
9.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 11.2
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.4 / 11.6
15.0 / 2.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.3
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
BOS
SEA
BOS
ML
50%
81-81
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
47%
76-87
ATS
60%
98-64
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
48%
79-84
TTL
56%
85-67-10
46%
72-83-5
53%
81-71-10
47%
74-83-6
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