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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

41-31  |  Road

13
FINAL
Tue, Jun 17 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

30-44  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Bennett Sousa
STARTING PITCHER

Bennett Sousa

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
Hogan Harris
STARTING PITCHER

Hogan Harris

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bennett Sousa None-None 1.69 -- 2.0 1
Hogan Harris None-None 3.29 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.69 Ldr ERA 3.29
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
📊
ATHLETICS
100%
ASTROS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

63.4%

Athletics Cover

36.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

17.2%

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.18
HOUSTON
3.81
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
5
HOUSTON
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Astros (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ ATH 9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026 HOU @ ATH 13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 HOU @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026 HOU @ ATH 7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026 ATH @ HOU 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.582
OPS
▲ .719
4
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +42.0% more
Houston: 0.8 vs Athletics: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +29.8% more
Houston: 11.9 vs Athletics: 8.3
Walks (L5) +12.6% more
Houston: 1.6 vs Athletics: 1.4
Home Runs (Season) +4750.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 5.2 13
ATH Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.5 / 7.6 4.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.7 0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 11.9 4.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 11.7 6.0 / 33.0
Walks 1.4 / 1.6 7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
HOU
ATH
HOU
ML
59% 95-67
50% 81-82
54% 87-74
47% 77-87
ATS
52% 84-78
56% 91-72
50% 81-80
55% 90-74
TTL
54% 84-73-5
45% 70-84-9
42% 66-90-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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