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INDIANA

PACERSIND

2-2  |  Road

109
FINAL
Mon, Jun 16 • 8:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

2-2  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
PACERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.8 points (Oklahoma City)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

18.8%

Thunder Cover

81.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -8.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

IND By 1-7 points

12.4%

IND By 8-14 points

4.1%

OKC By 1-7 points

24.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
112
INDIANA
120.85
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
INDIANA
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.8
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 232.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 IND @ OKC 117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025 OKC @ IND 141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025 OKC @ IND 101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025 IND @ OKC 91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025 OKC @ IND 91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.3% more
Oklahoma City: 42.0 vs Indiana: 37.0
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
Oklahoma City: 84.7% vs Indiana: 78.5%
Blocks (L5) +34.6% more
Indiana: 6.3 vs Oklahoma City: 4.1
Assists (L5) +28.7% more
Indiana: 23.9 vs Oklahoma City: 17.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 112.0 109
OKC Score 120.9 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 35.4 43.8 / 36.7
Assists 17.0 / 23.9 24.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.1 / 6.3 12.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 46.7 42.6 / 45.1
Free Throw % 84.7 / 78.5 81.3 / 80.0
Rebounding 42.0 / 37.0 45.0 / 50.0
Steals 10.5 / 9.8 15.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 15.9 11.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
IND
OKC
IND
ML
70% 80-34
48% 47-50
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
ATS
73% 83-30-1
59% 57-40
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 52-45
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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