Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Nationals COL @ WSH

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

14-57  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, Jun 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

30-41  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 3.12 -- 1.0 --
Jake Irvin None-None 4.23 -- 6.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
3.12 Ldr ERA 4.23
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
NATIONALS
0%
ROCKIES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Washington)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

43.3%

Nationals Cover

56.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

COL By 1-2 runs

17.1%

COL By 3-4 runs

11.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.07
COLORADO
3.74
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 COL @ WSH 1 - 7
Aug 26, 2026 COL @ WSH 13 - 1
Aug 25, 2026 COL @ WSH 3 - 1
Aug 24, 2026 COL @ WSH 3 - 13
Jul 22, 2026 WSH @ COL 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.739
OPS
▲ .744
180
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16.7% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Colorado: 180.0
Runs per Game (Season) +9.3% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Colorado: 4.6
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.6%
Washington: 42.3% vs Colorado: 41.7%
OPS (Season) +0.5%
Washington: 74.4% vs Colorado: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.1 6
WSH Score 3.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 9.3 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.8 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 8.0 7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 14.2 11.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.5 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
COL
WSH
COL
ML
57% 92-69
60% 97-64
54% 87-74
55% 88-73
ATS
58% 93-68
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
52% 83-78
TTL
50% 77-78-6
60% 93-62-6
42% 65-90-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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