NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
42-27 | Road
0
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
36-36 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | None-None | 1.89 | -- | 7.0 | 9 |
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 2.97 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.89 Ldr
ERA
2.97
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
61%
RED SOX
39%
YANKEES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.0%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.1%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Boston
4.84
BOSTON
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041
▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.9% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+63.2%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+34.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+28.8%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.0
0
BOS Score
4.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 6.7
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 6.9
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 10.5
11.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.6
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50%
80-80
47%
76-85
47%
76-87
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
48%
79-84
53%
86-76
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
81-73-7
47%
74-83-6
53%
82-72-7
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