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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

38-32  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Jun 15 • 1:40 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

45-26  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Walls
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Walls

#6 | Shortstop
@
Jared Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Young

#29 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Walls None-None -- -- -- --
Jared Young None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
0%
📊
METS
100%
RAYS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

62.6%

Mets Cover

37.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.0%

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.8
TAMPA BAY
5.51
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 NYM @ TB 10 - 4
Sep 1, 2026 NYM @ TB 2 - 6
Aug 31, 2026 NYM @ TB 3 - 2
Jun 15, 2025 TB @ NYM 9 - 0
Jun 14, 2025 TB @ NYM 8 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.728 ▲
OPS
.705
169
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +29.4% more
Tampa Bay: 1.0 vs New York: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5) +11.8% more
Tampa Bay: 8.9 vs New York: 7.9
Hits (L5) +11.0% more
Tampa Bay: 10.2 vs New York: 9.1
Walks (L5) +8.8% more
Tampa Bay: 2.8 vs New York: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 6.8 9
NYM Score 5.5 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 10.2 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 8.9 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 16.0 5.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.8 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
TB
NYM
TB
ML
50% 79-80
58% 95-68
48% 76-83
58% 95-68
ATS
58% 93-66
60% 97-66
49% 78-81
55% 90-73
TTL
55% 80-66-13
47% 73-81-9
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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