ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
37-34 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
38-34 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 2.31 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 2.96 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.31 Ldr
ERA
2.96
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
BREWERS
0%
CARDINALS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
STL By 1-2 runs
15.5%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.8%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.14
ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee
4.44
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
STL @ MIL
2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026
MIL @ STL
8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026
MIL @ STL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.691
OPS
▲
.743
167
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+33.8% more
Milwaukee: 3.6
vs
St. Louis: 2.7
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.4
vs
St. Louis: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.8% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season)
+5.2%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.1
2
MIL Score
4.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.9
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.8
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 12.1
14.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.7
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
STL
MIL
STL
ML
62%
101-61
53%
85-74
52%
84-78
52%
84-77
ATS
58%
94-68
56%
89-70
48%
78-84
53%
85-76
TTL
40%
62-92-8
46%
68-81-10
50%
77-77-8
50%
76-75-10
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