PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
29-43 | Road
2
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
43-28 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.08 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 1.75 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.08
ERA
Ldr 1.75
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
CUBS
0%
PIRATES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.2%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.1%
CHC By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.82
PITTSBURGH
Chicago
4.27
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.734
▲
OPS
.374
186
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+65.8% more
Chicago: 2.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.5
Home Runs (L5)
+48.0% more
Chicago: 1.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+23.8% more
Chicago: 11.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.0
Hits (L5)
+15.3% more
Chicago: 6.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.8
2
CHC Score
4.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 6.0
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.6
6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 9.0
8.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.4 / 1.5
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PIT
CHC
PIT
ML
58%
93-68
52%
82-77
51%
82-79
52%
85-78
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
81-82
TTL
52%
81-74-6
47%
72-81-6
46%
72-83-6
50%
79-78-6
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