SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
38-31 | Road
8
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
36-34 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 2.51 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 3.41 | -- | 5.0 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.51 Ldr
ERA
3.41
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
PADRES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
SD By 1-2 runs
14.4%
SD By 3-4 runs
8.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.82
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
5.52
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4050.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+118.0% more
Arizona: 1.7
vs
San Diego: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+33.6% more
Arizona: 15.7
vs
San Diego: 11.8
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Arizona: 0.6
vs
San Diego: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.8
8
ARI Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 8.5
3.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 9.8
9.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 11.8
6.0 / 24.0
Walks
4.0 / 4.3
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54%
87-74
51%
85-83
54%
86-74
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
91-77
56%
89-71
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
80-73-8
51%
82-80-6
49%
73-77-9
54%
86-74-6
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