Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Nationals MIA @ WSH

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

26-41  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Jun 14 • 1:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

30-39  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Calvin Faucher
STARTING PITCHER

Calvin Faucher

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Keibert Ruiz
STARTING PITCHER

Keibert Ruiz

#20 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Calvin Faucher None-None 3.96 -- 0.1 --
Keibert Ruiz None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.96 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
MARLINS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

56.3%

Nationals Cover

43.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

15.3%

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.2%

WSH By 3-4 runs

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.92
MIAMI
3.29
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 MIA @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 MIA @ WSH 6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026 MIA @ WSH 4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026 MIA @ WSH 2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026 WSH @ MIA 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.727
OPS
▲ .744
168
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +48.0% more
Miami: 1.3 vs Washington: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5) +26.7% more
Miami: 8.8 vs Washington: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +22.4% more
Miami: 16.4 vs Washington: 12.7
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
Miami: 0.6 vs Washington: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.9 4
WSH Score 3.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.7 / 11.0 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 8.8 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 16.4 9.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.3 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
57% 92-69
48% 78-84
54% 87-74
55% 88-72
ATS
58% 93-68
56% 91-71
57% 91-70
54% 86-74
TTL
50% 77-78-6
56% 88-69-5
42% 65-90-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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