MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
36-33 | Road
2
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
39-30 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joe Ryan
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | None-None | 2.93 | -- | 7.0 | 7 |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.50 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.93
ERA
Ldr 1.50
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
ASTROS
0%
TWINS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.1%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.3%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.23
MINNESOTA
Houston
5.7
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
MIN @ HOU
8 - 3
Jun 30, 2026
MIN @ HOU
4 - 6
Jun 29, 2026
MIN @ HOU
5 - 4
May 20, 2026
HOU @ MIN
1 - 4
May 19, 2026
HOU @ MIN
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720
▲
OPS
.582
187
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+60.7% more
Houston: 11.3
vs
Minnesota: 7.1
Hits (L5)
+29.0% more
Houston: 11.5
vs
Minnesota: 8.9
Total Bases (L5)
+16.3% more
Houston: 18.3
vs
Minnesota: 15.7
Home Runs (Season)
+97.9% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.2
2
HOU Score
5.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.5 / 8.9
4.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 7.1
17.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
18.3 / 15.7
7.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.3
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIN
HOU
MIN
ML
50%
81-82
52%
84-78
47%
77-87
50%
80-81
ATS
56%
91-72
59%
95-67
55%
90-74
59%
95-66
TTL
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-75-9
45%
69-86-9
53%
80-72-9
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