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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

37-32  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Jun 14 • 4:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

45-25  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Mason Englert
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Englert

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Englert None-None 4.84 -- 2.0 --
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.84 ERA --
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
0%
📊
METS
100%
RAYS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

54.7%

Mets Cover

45.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.1%

TB By 3-4 runs

14.9%

NYM By 1-2 runs

17.5%

NYM By 3-4 runs

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6.34
TAMPA BAY
5.87
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 NYM @ TB 10 - 4
Sep 1, 2026 NYM @ TB 2 - 6
Aug 31, 2026 NYM @ TB 3 - 2
Jun 15, 2025 TB @ NYM 9 - 0
Jun 14, 2025 TB @ NYM 8 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.728 ▲
OPS
.705
169
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +94.8% more
Tampa Bay: 1.5 vs New York: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5) +41.9% more
Tampa Bay: 10.9 vs New York: 6.3
Walks (L5) +36.6% more
Tampa Bay: 3.7 vs New York: 2.4
Hits (L5) +12.6% more
Tampa Bay: 9.3 vs New York: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 6.3 8
NYM Score 5.9 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.3 11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 10.9 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 13.9 18.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.7 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
TB
NYM
TB
ML
50% 79-80
58% 95-68
48% 76-83
58% 95-68
ATS
58% 93-66
60% 97-66
49% 78-81
55% 90-73
TTL
55% 80-66-13
47% 73-81-9
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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