Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Diamondbacks SD @ ARI

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

38-30  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Jun 14 • 7:15 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

35-34  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kevin Ginkel
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Ginkel

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Morejon None-None 2.60 -- -- --
Kevin Ginkel None-None 12.27 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.60 Ldr ERA 12.27
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
PADRES --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Arizona)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

27.8%

Diamondbacks Cover

72.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SD By 1-2 runs

12.5%

SD By 3-4 runs

6.9%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.44
SAN DIEGO
5.79
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ARI @ SD 4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026 ARI @ SD 7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026 ARI @ SD 11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026 SD @ ARI 5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 SD @ ARI 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Arizona ARI
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925 ▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲ 166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4050.0% more
Arizona: 166.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +176.0% more
Arizona: 2.0 vs San Diego: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +71.8% more
Arizona: 16.6 vs San Diego: 9.7
Hits (L5) +21.9% more
Arizona: 8.8 vs San Diego: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.4 7
ARI Score 5.8 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 7.2 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 8.8 8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 16.6 / 9.7 14.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.0 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54% 87-74
51% 85-83
54% 86-74
51% 85-82
ATS
57% 91-70
54% 91-77
56% 89-71
55% 92-75
TTL
52% 80-73-8
51% 82-80-6
49% 73-77-9
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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