Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Mariners CLE @ SEA

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

35-33  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Jun 14 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

34-34  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gabe Speier
STARTING PITCHER

Gabe Speier

#55 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Smith None-None 2.32 -- 1.0 2
Gabe Speier None-None 2.42 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.32 Ldr ERA 2.42
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
0%
📊
MARINERS
100%
GUARDIANS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

63.9%

Mariners Cover

36.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CLE By 3-4 runs

17.3%

SEA By 1-2 runs

15.2%

SEA By 3-4 runs

9.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.19
CLEVELAND
2.77
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 SEA @ CLE 5 - 6
Jun 27, 2026 SEA @ CLE 3 - 4
Jun 26, 2026 SEA @ CLE 3 - 1
Mar 29, 2026 CLE @ SEA 0 - 8
Mar 28, 2026 CLE @ SEA 6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.19 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.380 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.696 ▲
OPS
.693
162
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Cleveland: 0.6 vs Seattle: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +2.1% more
Cleveland: 4.2 vs Seattle: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season) +0.6%
Cleveland: 23.9% vs Seattle: 23.3%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.2%
Cleveland: 31.6% vs Seattle: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 4.2 3
SEA Score 2.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.1 / 6.9 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 6.5 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 19.7 / 12.2 8.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.0 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
CLE
SEA
CLE
ML
50% 81-81
54% 87-74
52% 85-77
49% 80-82
ATS
60% 98-64
58% 93-68
59% 95-67
59% 95-67
TTL
56% 85-67-10
55% 88-71-2
53% 81-71-10
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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