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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

1-2  |  Road

111
FINAL
Fri, Jun 13 • 8:30 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

2-1  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
THUNDER --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

51.7%

Pacers Cover

48.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

25.7%

OKC By 8-14 points

16.0%

IND By 1-7 points

24.9%

IND By 8-14 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
114.92
OKLAHOMA CITY
114.49
INDIANA
Simulated Score
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 229.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 IND @ OKC 117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025 OKC @ IND 141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025 OKC @ IND 101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025 IND @ OKC 91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025 OKC @ IND 91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Oklahoma City: 40.5% vs Indiana: 37.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Oklahoma City: 82.3% vs Indiana: 79.9%
Blocks (L5) +69.9% more
Indiana: 8.0 vs Oklahoma City: 4.7
Assists (L5) +26.3% more
Indiana: 25.3 vs Oklahoma City: 20.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 114.9 111
IND Score 114.5 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 40.5 30.6 / 18.8
Assists 25.3 / 20.1 21.0 / 11.0
Blocks 8.0 / 4.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 46.9 42.5 / 47.4
Free Throw % 79.9 / 82.3 75.8 / 89.5
Rebounding 39.1 / 41.5 33.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.3 / 9.8 11.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 14.6 16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
OKC
IND
OKC
ML
48% 47-50
70% 80-34
54% 45-38
48% 46-49
ATS
59% 57-40
73% 83-30-1
54% 45-38
48% 46-49
TTL
54% 52-45
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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