PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
28-42 | Road
2
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
42-27 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 1.82 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 1.82
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
CUBS
0%
PIRATES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
PIT By 1-2 runs
10.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
5.5%
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.5%
CHC By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.24
PITTSBURGH
Chicago
6.18
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.734
▲
OPS
.374
186
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+110.0% more
Chicago: 1.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+36.3% more
Chicago: 2.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.8
Total Bases (L5)
+29.8% more
Chicago: 13.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.3
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.2
2
CHC Score
6.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 6.7
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 8.3
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 10.3
10.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.4 / 1.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PIT
CHC
PIT
ML
58%
93-68
52%
82-77
51%
82-79
52%
85-78
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
81-82
TTL
52%
81-74-6
47%
72-81-6
46%
72-83-6
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …