Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Red Sox NYY @ BOS

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

42-25  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Jun 13 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

34-36  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Garrett Whitlock
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Whitlock

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Hill None-None 2.67 -- 1.0 1
Garrett Whitlock None-None 3.12 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.67 Ldr ERA 3.12
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
0%
📊
RED SOX
100%
YANKEES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

54.4%

Red Sox Cover

45.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.1%

NYY By 3-4 runs

14.8%

BOS By 1-2 runs

17.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

12.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.24
NEW YORK
4.8
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Boston BOS
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041 ▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +88.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +63.2%
New York: 1.0% vs Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +34.4%
New York: 59.4% vs Boston: 25.0%
On-Base Pct (Season) +28.8%
New York: 44.7% vs Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.2 1
BOS Score 4.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 8.6 6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 7.2 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 19.0 / 14.1 6.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.8 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50% 80-80
47% 76-85
47% 76-87
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
48% 79-84
53% 86-76
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 81-73-7
47% 74-83-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 40 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 47 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 6 hours, 36 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 6 hours, 46 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 6 hours, 51 minutes ago