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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

36-32  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Jun 13 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

45-24  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 2.45 -- 0.2 1
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.45 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
📊
METS
0%
RAYS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

49.0%

Mets Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

TB By 1-2 runs

18.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

13.3%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6.06
TAMPA BAY
6.16
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 NYM @ TB 10 - 4
Sep 1, 2026 NYM @ TB 2 - 6
Aug 31, 2026 NYM @ TB 3 - 2
Jun 15, 2025 TB @ NYM 9 - 0
Jun 14, 2025 TB @ NYM 8 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.728 ▲
OPS
.705
169
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +158.0% more
New York: 2.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +57.9% more
New York: 18.0 vs Tampa Bay: 11.4
Home Runs (Season) +20.7% more
New York: 204.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Hits (L5) +16.5% more
New York: 8.7 vs Tampa Bay: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 6.1 7
NYM Score 6.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 8.7 / 7.5 7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 9.9 4.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 18.0 / 11.4 8.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.1 / 2.1 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
TB
NYM
TB
ML
50% 79-80
58% 95-68
48% 76-83
58% 95-68
ATS
58% 93-66
60% 97-66
49% 78-81
55% 90-73
TTL
55% 80-66-13
47% 73-81-9
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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