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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

13-55  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Jun 13 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

29-38  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Freeman
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Freeman

#2 | RF
@
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Freeman None-None -- -- -- --
Dylan Lee None-None 2.10 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.10
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
BRAVES
0%
ROCKIES --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Atlanta)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

39.6%

Braves Cover

60.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.2%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.4%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.02
COLORADO
4.08
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Braves (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 COL @ ATL 2 - 3
Aug 29, 2026 COL @ ATL 1 - 2
Aug 28, 2026 COL @ ATL 4 - 6
May 3, 2026 ATL @ COL 11 - 6
May 2, 2026 ATL @ COL 9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.739
OPS
▲ .757
180 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +29.8% more
Atlanta: 1.4 vs Colorado: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +25.7% more
Atlanta: 10.5 vs Colorado: 8.3
Runs per Game (Season) +7.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
OPS (Season) +1.8%
Atlanta: 75.7% vs Colorado: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.0 4
ATL Score 4.1 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 4.0
Hits 8.8 / 10.1 15.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 8.3 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 16.8 23.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.3 / 5.7 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
COL
ATL
COL
ML
46% 77-90
60% 97-64
54% 90-78
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 96-71
60% 97-64
52% 87-81
52% 83-78
TTL
53% 83-73-11
60% 93-62-6
49% 76-80-11
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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