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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

36-32  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jun 13 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

38-30  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Brooks Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Brooks Lee

#22 | Third Base
@
Steven Okert
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Okert

#48 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brooks Lee None-None -- -- -- --
Steven Okert None-None 2.48 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.48
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
0%
📊
ASTROS
100%
TWINS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Minnesota)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

51.9%

Astros Cover

48.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

18.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

14.1%

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.1%

HOU By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.01
MINNESOTA
4.82
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Astros (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 MIN @ HOU 8 - 3
Jun 30, 2026 MIN @ HOU 4 - 6
Jun 29, 2026 MIN @ HOU 5 - 4
May 20, 2026 HOU @ MIN 1 - 4
May 19, 2026 HOU @ MIN 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720 ▲
OPS
.582
187 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.9% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Walks (L5) +45.3% more
Minnesota: 4.9 vs Houston: 2.7
Runs per Game (Season) +34.2% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5) +30.0% more
Minnesota: 0.8 vs Houston: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 5.0 3
HOU Score 4.8 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.2 / 9.4 14.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 13.0 / 6.1 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 14.5 23.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.9 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIN
HOU
MIN
ML
50% 81-82
52% 84-78
47% 77-87
50% 80-81
ATS
56% 91-72
59% 95-67
55% 90-74
59% 95-66
TTL
45% 70-84-9
51% 78-75-9
45% 69-86-9
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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