TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
32-36 | Road
16
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
36-31 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Winn
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Winn | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Bailey Ober | None-None | 4.40 | -- | 4.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
4.40
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
TWINS
100%
RANGERS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.2%
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.5%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.58
TEXAS
Minnesota
3.64
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
TEX @ MIN
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
TEX @ MIN
6 - 2
Sep 25, 2026
TEX @ MIN
2 - 10
Jun 18, 2026
MIN @ TEX
9 - 3
Jun 16, 2026
MIN @ TEX
12 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.713
OPS
▲
.720
183
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+57.0% more
Minnesota: 0.7
vs
Texas: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+13.1% more
Minnesota: 2.9
vs
Texas: 2.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.9% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Texas: 4.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.7%
Minnesota: 40.3%
vs
Texas: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.6
16
MIN Score
3.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 9.8
8.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.3
0.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 6.5
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.8 / 16.2
10.0 / 35.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.5
9.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TEX
MIN
TEX
ML
52%
84-78
53%
86-76
50%
80-81
57%
91-70
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
92-70
59%
95-66
61%
98-63
TTL
51%
78-75-9
53%
78-70-14
53%
80-72-9
55%
81-66-14
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