Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Brewers STL @ MIL

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

36-32  |  Road

0
FINAL
Thu, Jun 12 • 7:40 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

36-33  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Pedro Pages
STARTING PITCHER

Pedro Pages

#43 | Catcher
@
Aaron Ashby
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Ashby

#26 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Pedro Pages None-None -- -- -- --
Aaron Ashby None-None 0.00 -- 3.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
51%
📊
BREWERS
49%
CARDINALS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (St. Louis)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

51.9%

Brewers Cover

48.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

18.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

14.1%

MIL By 1-2 runs

18.1%

MIL By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.03
ST. LOUIS
3.84
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 STL @ MIL 2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026 MIL @ STL 8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 MIL @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.691
OPS
▲ .743
167 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
St. Louis: 0.7 vs Milwaukee: 0.4
Hits (L5) +34.8% more
St. Louis: 8.7 vs Milwaukee: 5.7
Total Bases (L5) +26.1% more
St. Louis: 13.8 vs Milwaukee: 10.2
Home Runs (L5) +24.2% more
St. Louis: 1.3 vs Milwaukee: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.0 0
MIL Score 3.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.7 / 8.7 12.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 6.0 7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 10.2 / 13.8 18.0 / 3.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.3 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
STL
MIL
STL
ML
62% 101-61
53% 85-74
52% 84-78
52% 84-77
ATS
58% 94-68
56% 89-70
48% 78-84
53% 85-76
TTL
40% 62-92-8
46% 68-81-10
50% 77-77-8
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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