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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

28-41  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Jun 12 • 8:05 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

41-27  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jared Triolo
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Triolo

#19 | Shortstop
@
Nico Hoerner
STARTING PITCHER

Nico Hoerner

#2 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jared Triolo None-None -- -- -- --
Nico Hoerner None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
PIRATES --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Chicago)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

29.5%

Cubs Cover

70.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

PIT By 1-2 runs

13.1%

PIT By 3-4 runs

7.4%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.88
PITTSBURGH
6.04
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 PIT @ CHC 4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 PIT @ CHC 3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026 PIT @ CHC 2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026 CHC @ PIT 7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 CHC @ PIT 11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.734 ▲
OPS
.374
186 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +64.0% more
Chicago: 1.6 vs Pittsburgh: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +16.2% more
Chicago: 15.0 vs Pittsburgh: 12.9
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +89.4% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.9 2
CHC Score 6.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 8.0 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 7.9 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 12.9 10.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PIT
CHC
PIT
ML
58% 93-68
52% 82-77
51% 82-79
52% 85-78
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-73
47% 75-85-1
50% 81-82
TTL
52% 81-74-6
47% 72-81-6
46% 72-83-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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