CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
35-33 | Road
2
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
34-32 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Allen
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | None-None | 3.76 | -- | 3.1 | 6 |
| Logan Allen | None-None | 4.28 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.76 Ldr
ERA
4.28
--
WHIP
--
3.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
6
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
GUARDIANS
100%
REDS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CIN By 3-4 runs
15.8%
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.8%
CLE By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.24
CINCINNATI
Cleveland
3.45
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
CLE @ CIN
6 - 1
Jul 28, 2026
CLE @ CIN
0 - 2
May 17, 2026
CIN @ CLE
3 - 10
May 16, 2026
CIN @ CLE
4 - 7
May 15, 2026
CIN @ CLE
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.699
▲
OPS
.696
213
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+51.5% more
Cincinnati: 1.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+37.4% more
Cincinnati: 14.2
vs
Cleveland: 8.9
Hits (L5)
+32.7% more
Cincinnati: 8.9
vs
Cleveland: 6.0
Home Runs (Season)
+23.9% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.2
2
CLE Score
3.5
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 8.9
13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.3
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 7.0
7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
8.9 / 14.2
22.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CIN
CLE
CIN
ML
54%
87-74
55%
88-71
49%
80-82
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
59%
95-67
50%
80-80
TTL
55%
88-71-2
53%
81-73-5
43%
69-90-2
54%
83-72-5
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