Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Diamondbacks SEA @ ARI

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

33-33  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Jun 11 • 3:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

33-34  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Gabe Speier
STARTING PITCHER

Gabe Speier

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Juan Morillo
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Morillo

#62 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gabe Speier None-None 2.16 -- 0.1 --
Juan Morillo None-None 5.09 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.16 Ldr ERA 5.09
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
100%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
MARINERS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

40.0%

Diamondbacks Cover

60.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SEA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SEA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.39
SEATTLE
4.4
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 31, 2026 ARI @ SEA 2 - 3
May 30, 2026 ARI @ SEA 1 - 5
May 29, 2026 ARI @ SEA 6 - 7
Jun 11, 2025 SEA @ ARI 2 - 5
Jun 10, 2025 SEA @ ARI 3 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.693
OPS
▲ .720
182 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +71.9% more
Arizona: 2.1 vs Seattle: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +12.1% more
Arizona: 18.3 vs Seattle: 16.4
Runs per Game (Season) +11.2% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Seattle: 4.1
OPS (Season) +2.7%
Arizona: 72.0% vs Seattle: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 3.4 2
ARI Score 4.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 11.2 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 10.1 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 18.3 / 16.4 17.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.2 / 4.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SEA
ARI
SEA
ML
54% 87-74
50% 81-81
54% 86-74
52% 85-77
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 98-64
56% 89-71
59% 95-67
TTL
52% 80-73-8
56% 85-67-10
49% 73-77-9
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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